Weekend roundup: Dougherty's Friend; New Ferrick column on the 179th district race

On Saturday, the Inquirer I-team of John Shiffman, Craig R. McCoy and Nancy Phillips explored the case against Donald "Gus" Dougherty, a South Philly electrical contractor who is expected to plead guilty to 98 of 100 tax and theft charges against him -- but not to the two counts that he made illegal payments to union leader and State Senate candidate John Dougherty (a friend, but no relation).

An Associated Press story that ran Saturday in The Centre Daily Times and other papers statewide looks at the delicate balance of power in the legislature in Harrisburg . Republicans control the state Senate, 29-21, "a margin large enough to make it likely they will retain control this year," the story says. "But in the House things are much more volatile, and both parties began recruiting candidates months ago. Democratic strategists are targeting districts in the Philadelphia suburbs for potential pickups..."

Check out the new column by Tom Ferrick -- a Committee of 70 Web exclusive -- explaining the challenges State Rep. Tony Payton has faced as he seeks re-election in the 179th.

Fumo's Still Smokin'

In today's Inquirer, Kristen Graham follows outgoing 1st District State Senator Vince Fumo to a meeting with constituents at the Central South Philadelphia Civic Association Alliance -- and reveals that the people still love their man.

The Young Philly Politics blog gives some background about Pennsylvania's closed primary system and why independent voters who didn't register with a party by Monday will not be able to vote in the April 22 primary.

Payton in Place; CityPaper visits neighborhoods politics forgot

The Northeast Times reports State Rep. Tony Payton will remain on the ballot in the 179th Legislative District, surviving a challenge to the validity of signatures he submitted to be eligible to run. Payton submitted 1,361 signatures in favor of his candidacy. Judge Doris Smith-Ribner validated 386 of them, Tom Waring reports. That's a .284 batting average. His fans have to hope he can hit for power.

Tom Namako has begun a multipart series in the Philly CityPaper called "Politics Lost," looking at downtrodden city neighborhoods where the politicians don't bother campaigning. This week it's West Philly's Carroll Park.

New Endorsements for Dougherty, Farnese

John Dougherty has received another labor endorsement in his bid for the State Senate seat in the 1st District, this one from the Philadelphia Fraternal Order of Police, according to the Inquirer. The FOP represents 14,000 active and retired Philadelphia police officers, Sam Wood reports.

Earlier, papers reported on endorsements by the Liberty City LesBiGay Trans Democratic Club. The group has endorsed Larry Farnese for 1st Senate. Its other picks, as reported in the Daily News and Inquirer, are: Hillary Clinton for president; Rob McCord, state treasurer; and for state rep: in the 163rd, Kevin Lee; 179th, Tony Payton Jr.; 181st, W. Curtis Thomas; 182nd, Babette Josephs; 186th, Kenyatta Johnson; 190th, Vanessa Brown; 198th, Byron Davis.

The Farnese campaign says it's hosting a fundraiser tonight: “Not Your Daddy’s Fundraiser,” from 7 to 9 p.m. at the Pearl Restaurant on Chestnut Street. More info at the candidate's site, larryfarnese.com

Campaign HQ Break-In, New Dicker Ad, Democratic Registrations Surge

Holy Watergate! Police are investigating a weekend break-in at the Arts of the Avenue gallery in South Philadelphia, where Christian DiCicco, a candidate in the 184th PA House district, recently opened his campaign office, reports Bob Warner in the Daily News. Eight paintings and a leather couch were slashed, phone wires were cut , and campaign documents were gone, the story says.

DiCicco is running against State Rep. Bill Keller. Gallery owner Jim Gallo said he'd received threatening phone calls from Keller supporters. DiCicco thinks the John Dougherty campaign is behind it, according to an Inquirer report by Marcia Gelbart. "The 184th District race is viewed as the latest battle between Dougherty, who supports Keller, and State Sen. Vincent Fumo, a DiCicco ally who is vacating the [1st PA Senate District] seat that Dougherty is pursuing," Gelbart writes. The Johnny Doc campaign says the charge is untrue.

* * *

The Anne Dicker campaign for the 1st Senate District has begun running a new ad on cable TV and YouTube. And here it is:



In the interest of equal time, here are existing videos from Dicker's rivals, Larry Farnese:



and John Dougherty:


Voter Registration Time Has Left the Building: Some interesting numbers in an Inquirer story today about the surge of voter registrations in PA, most of which have been Democratic. From March 10-17, 14,256 out of 19,639 new voters signed up as Dems. An even higher number -- 29,060 people -- switched to Democrat (at least for the time being). Apparently everybody wants a piece of the Democratic presidential primary.

Registration Day, Fumo's "Shadow," & Casino Campaigning

Spring is in the air! The breeze off the Delaware is warming up, and another early start to Daylight Savings Time has settled in nicely. The Major League Baseball season for some reason begins tomorrow morning at 6:05 a.m. with a game in Japan.

And today is the last day to register to vote in the April 22 state primary. If you're not already registered, you need to get this form postmarked by today. If you want to vote in the race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, or hotly contested local Democratic races, you need to be registered as a Democrat.

It's a tough bet whether the proposed Philadelphia riverfront casinos will be a make-or-break issue for Democratic candidates looking to replace Vincent Fumo in the 1st Senatorial District. In today's Daily News, Chris Brennan runs down what they have to say about it.

In the Inquirer, Joseph A. Gambardello asks candidate Larry Farnese to respond to suggestions that he may be a surrogate in the election for the departed Fumo. Fumo allies including City Councilmen Frank DiCicco and James Kenney are backing Farnese, and the article says "it's well known that Fumo and Farnese's families are connected" (to each other). Farnese says, "I am my own man, and that's the way it's going to be."

In the presidential race, Clinton campaigned in Blue Bell today, then spoke at Penn, where the Inquirer's Larry Eichel live-blogged her speech. Tom Infield looks at "The Last Time a Pa. Primary Mattered." Obama is taking a short vacation out of the country. He's not in Australia, though maybe he ought to stop by for a pep rally. One newspaper columnist down there today says: "Barack Obama is a rock-star combination of Jesus Christ, Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King jnr, peppered with hints of Superman and Denzel Washington and with the faintest whiff of Jimmy Stewart in Mr Smith Goes to Washington. "

Weekend Roundup: Fumo Name Off Ballot; is PA Really OH?

Happy Easter.

It's 30 Days until the PA Primary, and almost everything remains up for grabs. Monday is the last day to register to vote in the April 22 primary. This form must be postmarked by tomorrow. It's a hectic deadline, yes. But that's why they call it March Madness, baby.

The latest news...

Vincent Fumo is officially off the April 22 ballot for State Senate, report Dave Davies in the Daily News and Joseph Gambardello in the Inquirer. That seems to make sense -- now that Fumo isn't running and all (Ferrick's analysis).

This ballot deletion has absolutely nothing to do with the PA voter registration web site that the state has shut down due to security glitches that potentially exposed individuals' personal information, as Angela Couloumbis reports in the Inky.

Meanwhile, in the ongoing postmortem of Fumo's political career, Ben Waxman at The Next Mayor blog asks what (if anything) was so special about all the money Fumo was able to bring to Philadelphia from Harrisburg.

Catching up on the 179th PA House race, it looks like incumbent Tony Payton has survived a challenge to his nominating petitions and will remain on the ballot.

In the race for president:

Sasha Issenberg in today's Boston Globe examines work by the Barack Obama campaign to register voters in Philadelphia and keep the popular vote in PA close.

"Obama's campaign has given every indication that he does not expect to win the most delegates when Pennsylvania votes on April 22, due to an overwhelmingly white, working-class electorate that has already given Hillary Clinton a sizable lead in some polls," Issenberg writes. But they do want to prevent Clinton from catching up in popular votes nationally. Obama is getting around. After his speech at the Constitution Center, he filmed a campaign ad at the West Avenue Grille in Jenkintown, as we learn in Gar Joseph's Daily News Clout column (second item).

At Politico.com, former Inquirer political writer Carrie Budoff Brown has a piece this weekend ("Dynasty: Not a dirty word in Pennsylvania") pointing out how much Pennsylvanians seem to like politicians who are related to past politicians. There's a picture of Hillary Clinton smiling about that. "Familiarity does not breed contempt is this state," Budoff Brown writes.

In "A Review of the Pennsylvania Primary" over at RealClearPolitics.com, Jay Cost pulls out some fancy, higher-level mathematics -- including regression analysis -- to analyze the demographics that may drive the Democratic presidential primary. It may all boil down to this simple formula:

Clinton's Margin of Victory (Or Defeat) In a County = Baseline + Median White Income in County + Percentage of African Americans in County + Percentage of Residents Aged 20-24 in County + Unaccounted for "Error"

Or not.

Cost, who authors The Horse Race Blog, says the numbers suggest "it reasonable to favor Clinton in Pennsylvania." Some data seem to suggest "Clinton should do roughly as well as she did in Ohio," Cost writes. But he acknowledges the differences --and refers to a recent Politico.com piece by Joel Kotkin suggesting PA is no OH.